Wheat will be affected by climate change in emerging nations
According to Chinese research published Aug. 19 in the journal One Earth, climate change may have a greater detrimental effect on low-latitude nations than on high-altitude nations, increasing the disparity in the fortunes of wheat farmers in developed and developing nations.
Using an ensemble modelling approach that they devised, the researchers examined the effects of extreme occurrences and average climate conditions on wheat prices, yields, and the worldwide supply chain. The model evaluated the effects of two degrees Celsius of global warming on the supply and demand chain for wheat worldwide.
Under the scenario of 2 degrees Celsius warming, the researchers predict a 1.7% rise in global mean yield because carbon dioxide fertilisation will offset the effects of global warming. Lower-latitude regions like Africa and South Asia will see a reduction in yields; in certain cases, the decline will be more than 15%. Higher-altitude regions like the US, China, and Europe will see higher yields.
The average price of wheat to consumers worldwide will rise by 1.8%. In Central Asia and India, mean prices will rise. In certain nations, such as China and a number of European nations, they will decline.
“This shift in yields could strengthen the wheat market’s conventional trading position, which could lead to the wheat-importing regions in low latitudes,compared to wheat exporting nations, regions like Southern Asia and Northern Africa, could experience more frequent and severe surges in wheat prices, according to senior author Tianyi Zhang, an agro-meteorologist from the Chinese Academy of Science’s Institute of Atmospheric Physics.
The analysis predicts that trade liberalisation will widen the economic disparity between farmers in nations that import wheat and those that sell it.
“Global food security under the threat of climate change would benefit from agricultural trade liberalisation accompanied by protection policies in developing countries,” the researchers stated.The study was financed by the European Union’s Horizon 2020, the JPI-Belmont Forum, and the Chinese National Key Research and Development Project.