USDA Updates Sugar Supply Forecast for 2020–21
The US Department of Agriculture stated in its Feb. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report that forecast record-high US sugar production and slightly higher imports in 2020–21 increased the expected ending stocks-to-use ratio to 16.15%, up from 14.4% in January and sharply up from 12.9% in 2019–20.
The total amount of sugar produced domestically in 2020–21 was predicted to be 9,312,000 tons, up 1,163,000 tons, or 14%, from 2019–20 and 156,000 tons, or 1.7%, from the January prediction. Production of beet sugar was expected to reach 5,046,000 tons, up 695,000 tons from the previous year and 53,778 tons from January. A record-breaking 4,265,000 tons of cane sugar were anticipated, up 102,000 tons from the previous month and 467,000 tons from 2019–20.
According to USDA estimates, “beet sugar production is increased on a projected increase in national sucrose recovery to 15.126%.” With the exception of the Upper Midwest, all regions are expected to see historically high rates of recovery. The majority of regions have expressed concern over beet pile reduction, although processor data gathered through January has not yet indicated a change.
According to industry figures, Louisiana’s cane sugar production for the 2020–21 crop year reached a record of 1.957 million short tons, raw value (up 44,850 tons from January). After accounting for output that took place in September of the previous fiscal year, the projection for the current fiscal year is 1.931 million tons. Due to the campaign’s extension into January, record production—estimated at 197,000 tons—was produced for the month.
“Florida’s cane sugar production has increased by 65,000 tons to 2.2 million tons as a result of processors reporting higher harvested areas combined with a lower cane yield increase.Texas’s cane sugar output decreased by 7,984 tons as a result of a decline in late-season yields.
According to the USDA, “the strong pace set in the first quarter of the fiscal year and over subscribed imports of organic sugar beyond remaining tranche levels that are being stored in bonded warehouses” are the reasons behind the 60,000-ton increase in forecast imports for 2020–21 from January to 3,404,000 tons, all of which are high-tier imports, which were projected at 170,000 tons.The projected sugar consumption for 2020–21 remained unchanged, as did all of the 2019–20 predictions.
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The USDA stated, “The Commerce Department will determine a new export limit for sugar from Mexico after the publication of the sugar WASDE next month.” “That computation will be based on the greater of (a) US needs as specified in the agreement suspending anti-dumping and countervailing duties or (b) the export cap of 927,920 tons set by Commerce in December 2020.”
Reducing Mexico’s limit from the present estimate of 1,163,000 tons to 927,920 tons would lower the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 14.2%, which is still above the USDA’s minimum target of 13.5% but within the target range of 13.5% to 15.5%, assuming no further adjustments occur in supply or usage in the March WASDE The USDA left their prediction for Mexico’s supply and consumption of sugar unchanged.for 2020-21 or in estimates for last year.