USDA reports that soybean and corn are growing faster than wheat.
In its Agricultural Projections to 2030 report, released on February 16, the US Department of Agriculture predicted that wheat plantings and harvested area would either remain flat or decline over the next few years. Production will gradually increase, but only if steady gains in the average yield are anticipated.
The USDA predicted that 46 million acres of wheat would be planted in 2021, an increase of 1.7 million acres from 2020. It was predicted that the acreage planted to wheat would remain at 46 million through 2023, after which it would gradually decrease to 44.5 million acres for the years 2028 through 2030. The harvested area is expected to follow a similar trend, peaking at 38.5 million acres in 2022 and 2023 before falling in the following years to 37.3 million acres for the final year.
It was predicted that wheat yields would increase gradually from 49.1 bus/acre in 2021 to 52.8 bus/acre in 2030.
In contrast to 1,826 million bus in 2020, the USDA predicted that US wheat production would reach 1,890 million bus in 2021. Over the course of the timeline, production was predicted to rise with a few dips and reach 1,969 million buses by 2030.
In contrast, the average wheat output over the last five years (2016–2020) was 1,939 million bus. From 2021 to 2030, there was no expectation that wheat production would reach the previous peak of 2,309 million bushels in 2016.
The USDA forecast corn plantings and harvested area to level off to a projected 90 million acres and 82.5 million acres, respectively, from 2021 through 2025, and then decline to 89 million acres planted and 81.5 million acres harvested in the last five years of the timeline.
Average yield was forecast to rise incrementally from a forecast 180.5 bus per acre in 2021 to 198.5 bus per acre in 2030.
Corn production in 2021 was projected at 14,890, up 168 million bus from 14,722 million bus in 2020. Production was forecast to rise in each subsequent year, with the exception of a slight downturn in 2026, through the timeline reaching a peak of 16,180 million bus in 2030. Corn production was projected to set a new record high in 2023 at 15,220 million bus. The current record outturn was 15,148 million bus in 2016.
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In contrast to 83.1 million acres in 2020, the USDA predicted that 89 million acres would be planted in soybeans in 2021. The planted area for the current year is expected to be the smallest in the timeline, with plantings expected to reach 90 million or 90.5 million acres in the following years, with the latter larger figure only pertaining to 2024 and 2025. With the exception of 2024 and 2025, when harvested area was predicted to be 89.7 million acres, harvested area was predicted to be 88.2 million acres in 2021 and 89.2 million acres in the years that followed.
The average yield was predicted to be 50.6 buses per acre in 2021 and to increase progressively each year after that, reaching 55.6 buses per acre in 2030.
According to the USDA’s most recent estimate, soybean production in 2020 was 4,135 million bus, but in 2021 it was expected to reach a record 4,465 million bus. 4,428 million bus was the record soybean output in 2018. It was predicted that soybean production would reach 4,955 million buses in 2020, setting new records every year in the timeline.