USDA predicts increased sugar production in the US.
WASHINGTON In its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on January 12, the US Department of Agriculture increased its 2022–2023 prediction for US beet and cane sugar production, marginally reduced imports, and maintained delivery schedules. As a result, the stocks-to-use ratio increased.
The US sugar production forecast was revised up 209,000 tons, or 2.3%, from the December forecast and up 92,000 tons, or 1%, from 2021–22, when it was estimated at 9,156,000 tons, up 19,259 tons from the previous month due to a similar increase in cane sugar production in Louisiana. This was the biggest change in the WASDE report. The production of beet sugar was predicted to reach 5,048,318 tons in 2022–2023, an increase of 120,819 tons, or 2.5%, from December.
If achieved, the production of cane sugar in 2022–2023 would be the largest ever, while the production of sugar overall would rank second ever, after 9,293,000 tons in 2017–2018.
According to the USDA, “Louisiana production in 2022–2023 is adjusted downward by the September 2022 amount but partially offset by an increase in projected production in September 2023 because September production in Louisiana is a product of the 2022–2023 sugar cane harvest.” “More importantly, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) prediction for January sugar cane production increased by 5% over the previous month to 15,818,000 tons, which resulted in a rise in Louisiana production. At 13.48%, sucrose recovery remains constant. Production (Louisiana) increased by 88,216 tons from the previous month to 2,112,885 tons for the fiscal year 2022–2023. Fears of damage to the roughly 20% of Louisiana’s sugar cane crop that was still in the fields in late December when freezing temperatures blanketed the majority of the statedid not seem to be validated.
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NSS predicts that sugar beet production will be 32,574,000 tons in 2022–2023, a 2.65% decrease, due to decreased yield and harvested area. An increase in sucrose recovery more than offsets the decrease in sugar beet production. The USDA forecasts a 15% sucrose recovery rate based on sugar output data from August through November in their Sweetener Market Data. This is higher than the 14.626% recorded last month, which was based on historical tendency.
Forecast sugar imports for 2022–2023 were 3,458,000 tons, a 35,480-ton decrease from December. The estimated amount of imports under tariff-rate quotas was 1,606,000 tons, a decrease of 85,943 tons; other program imports was 250,000 tons, a non-change, and imports from Mexico $1,477,000 tons.
According to the USDA, “sugar under the 2021–22 TRQ permitted to enter by the extension of the quota year to end of December was 164,225 tons and below that estimated last month by 85,943.”
The prediction for high-tier imports in 2022–2023 was 125,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from December. According to the USDA, “the pace of high-tier tariff refined sugar imports for the remainder of the year and an increase in raw sugar high-tier imports recorded by Customs in December” were the reasons behind the increase in 2022–2023 high-tier imports.
A total of 14,525,000 tons of sugar were anticipated in 2022–2023, an increase of 178,027 tons, or 1.2%, from December and an increase of 19,000 tons, or 0.1%, from 14,506,000 tons in 2021–2022.
The estimated deliveries for 2022–2023 remained the same as those for November, with 12,500,000 tons of food delivery included. 35,000 tons of exports and 105,000 tons of “other” were the projected amounts, respectively.
In December of 2022, ending stocks were predicted to have increased by 178,000 tons, or 10%, from 2021–2022 and by 66,000 tons, or 3.6%, from 2021–2023. The stocks-to-use ratio for the end of the current year was predicted to be 14.9%, up from 14.3% in 2021–22 and 13.5% in December.
The import and delivery projections for 2021–2022 remained unchanged. With higher cane sugar production largely offset by miscellaneous adjustments estimated at 81,000 tons, up 15,000 tons, closing inventories were 1,819,000 tons, up 4,472 tons from December.
Mexico’s supply-and-demand projections for 2022–2023 showed only modest changes from December: actual weight increased by 759 tonnes, domestic consumption decreased by 759 tonnes, and ending stocks remained at 971,000 tonnes. The estimates for Mexico for 2021–2022 remained unchanged.
In remarks to the WASDE regarding projections for Mexico, the USDA stated, “USDA estimates that the sugar production campaign through the end of December is at least 15% behind the pace established over the preceding nine years.” “The data to date is insufficient, notwithstanding some optimism that the pace will pick up speed. The campaign’s speed will be continuously watched carefully.