USDA notes a decline in US sugar supply.
In its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on March 8, the US Department of Agriculture revised its predictions for US and Mexican sugar supply and use in February, resulting in much tighter supplies in 2022–2023.
The USDA projected that the 2022–2023 US sugar beet crop will yield 5,160,157 tons of raw sugar, up 59,941 tons from February. This increase was due to increased sucrose recovery rates.
The USDA stated, “Sucrose recoveries are above average in all regions, with the Red River Valley region likely experiencing record-high recoveries.”
Forecast cane sugar production was 4,150,000 tons, up 19,000 tons from February as lower production in Texas was more than offset by greater output in Florida and Louisiana.
A total of 9,310,000 tons of domestic sugar were projected for 2022–2023, up 79,000 tons, or 0.9%, from February and up 153,000 tons, or 1.7%, from 2021–2022.
Forecast imports for 2022–2023 were 3,330,000 tons, a decrease of 133,573 tons from February. 1,306,000 tons of imports from Mexico were anticipated, which is 171,000 tons less than in February. Forecasts for tariff-rate quota imports and high-tier imports showed a 31,000 increase in high-tier imports at 155,630 tons and 7,000 tons, respectively, “on a larger-than-anticipated import pace for refined sugar.”
The projected total sugar supply for 2022–2023 was 14,460,000 tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons from 2021–2022 and 54,000 tons from February.
The USDA stated that sugar deliveries for food in 2022–2023 were anticipated to reach 12,600,000 tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from February “on the strong pace through January.” The prediction for total deliveries in the other delivery sectors remained constant at 12,740,000 tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from February.
It was predicted that the stocks-to-use ratio at the end of 2022–2023 would be 13.5%, down from 14.8% in February and 14.3% in 2021–2022.
As anticipated, Mexico’s sugar output for 2022–2023 fell precipitously from February onward, along with decreases in exports, domestic consumption, and ending stockpiles. Forecasted sugar production for 2022–2023 was 5,485,000 tonnes, actual weight; this is a decrease of 415,000 tonnes from February and 700,000 tons from 2021–2022.
According to the USDA, “the campaign has been off target since its inception, with the pace through the end of December at least 15% behind the pace established over the preceding nine years.” The harvested area has recovered since then. Yields of sugar cane are still much below average. Although sucrose recovery has also been delayed throughout the experiment, it is gradually improving.
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According to USDA estimates, Mexico would consume 4,438,000 tonnes of sugar domestically in 2022–2023—a decrease of 222,000 tonnes from February—and export 1,121,278 tonnes—a decrease of 147,000 tonnes—with nearly all of that sugar “expected for shipment to the United States under export license.” The US-Mexico suspension agreements estimated 1,117,635 tonnes as Mexico’s export limit to the US, with output of “other” sugar with less than 99.2 polarity at 784,000 to 805,200 tonnes, or 70% to 72%, of the export limit.
The USDA stated that “reductions in domestic use to make up the remainder of the allocation (to the United States) implies offsetting.” “USDA projects lower ending stocks and lower deliveries to the IMMEX program.”
The projected ending stocks for 2022–2023 were 925,000 tonnes, which represents a decrease of 39,000 tonnes from 2021–2022 and 46,000 tonnes from February.