USDA modifies projections for US sugar supply
In its August 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the US Department of Agriculture revised its forecasts for sugar supply for this year and for 2021–22, mostly in line with expectations. However, it did not alter its estimates for domestic sugar use for either year.
The US was expected to produce 9,234,000 short tons of sugar in 2020–21 (ending on September 30) at raw value, which is an increase of 1,085,000 tons (or 13%) over 2019–20 but a decrease of 51,945 tons (or 0.6%) from the July projection. Cane sugar output was predicted to be down 1,000 tons to 4,171,000 tons this year, while beet sugar production was expected to be 5,063,000 tons, down 51,000 tons, or 1%, from July.
“Mostly on a lower share of crop year 2021-22 beet sugar production occurring in August and September 2021,” the USDA explained in relation to the lower beet sugar projection. “The 2021–2022 fiscal year is expected to account for that portion of processor-reported decreases resulting from later-than-anticipated harvest start dates.”
Forecast total sugar imports for 2020–21 were 3,177,000 tons, up 38,607 tons from July, as slightly higher tariff rate quota and other program (re-export) imports more than offset reduced imports from Mexico.
According to the USDA, “the raw sugar TRQ shortfall is reduced by 11,134 tons to 75,721 after sugar from the Philippines entered that was previously expected not to enter.” “On the import speed from, re-export imports are up 45,000 tons to 245,000.
The USDA stated, “At this time, there are no policy announcements concerning imports.”The projected total sugar supply for 2020–21 was 14,028,000 tons, which represents a 14,000 ton decrease from the July estimate.
Based on the current rate, exports were boosted by 10,000 tons to 45,000 tons for 2020–21.Forecasts for domestic usage for 2020–21 remained unchanged, with deliveries for food use coming in at 12,125,000 tons, a 0.8% decrease from 2019–20. The ending stocks-to-use ratio was predicted to be 14.3%, down from 14.5% in July, and ending stocks of 1,753,000 tons, down 24,000 tons from July.
Changes from 2020–21 were factored into the predictions for 2021–22. 24,000 tons were removed from the starting stocks. Based on beet sugar of 5,078,000 tons, production was estimated at 9,048,000 tons, up 40,000 tons from July.tons, an increase of 45,000 tons, and 3,970,000 tons of cane sugar, a decrease of 5,000 tons due to reducedproduction in Texas.
Forecasts for imports, exports, and domestic use for 2021–2022 remained unchanged.13,937,000 tons of sugar were predicted to be produced overall in 2021–2022, an increase of 16,000 tons over the July estimate.Assuming 1,672,000 tons of ending inventories, up 16,000 tons from July, the stocks-to-use ratio increased to 13.6% from 13.5%.
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Forecasts for Mexico for this year and the following year also showed just slight changes. According to estimates, sugar output in 2020–21 will be 5,715,000 tonnes, an increase of 7,000 tonnes from July; exports will be 1,357,000 tonnes, a decrease of 9,000 tonnes; and domestic use will be 4,405,000 tonnes, an increase of 14,000 tonnes. This year’s ending stocks were predicted to be 916,000.tonnes, which is 3,000 more than the prediction from July. The production for the next year remained at 5,809,000 tonnes. A corresponding rise in domestic use more than outweighed the 14,000 tonne decrease in exports. To reach 916,000 tons, ending stockpiles were increased by 3,000 tonnes.