USDA may reduce sugar supply somewhat.
WASHINGTON The US Department of Agriculture reduced the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 14.7% from 15.1% last month in its May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The agency had made mostly minor adjustments from April in its 2020–21 US sugar supply–and–demand projections.
A 70,000-ton decrease in cane sugar production, predicted at 4,181,000 tons, more than offset a 25,000-ton rise in beet sugar, anticipated at 5,118,000 tons, resulting in a record 9,299,000 tons of domestic production in 2020–21—down 45,000 tons from April.
The overall amount of imports observed was 3,154,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous month, as changes from April’s import estimates were mostly countered. Forecasted imports under tariff-rate quotas were 1,673,000 tons, down 48,000 tons from April; imports from Mexico were projected at 981,000 tons, up 50,000 tons, as a result of the rise in the country’s April-announced “other” sugar export limit. High-tier imports remained constant at 200,000 tons, while other program imports remained at 300,000 tons.
The overall amount of sugar used, which was projected to be 12,265,000 tons in April, remained unchanged. This included 35,000 tons of exports, 105,000 tons of other sugar, and 12,125,000 tons of food supplies.
Ending stocks for 2020–21 were predicted to be 1,805,000 tons, which represents a 12% decrease and a 43,000-ton decrease from the April prediction.
The USDA projected domestic sugar production at a record 9,310,000 tons for the 2021–22 marketing year, which starts on October 1. This is an increase of 11,000 tons from the current year. Among these was beet sugar, which is expected to reach 5,225,000 tons, up 107,000 tons, or 2.1%, and the second highest on record after 2017–18, and cane sugar, which is expected to reach 4,085,000 tons, down 96,000 tons, or 2.3%, but still the third highest on record.
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A total of 2,652,000 tons of imports were anticipated, of which 1,387,000 tons were expected to come from TRQ imports, the minimum amount mandated by World Trade Organization agreements. 964,775 tons of imports were expected, of which 250,000 tons came from other programs and 50,000 tons from high-tier imports.The projections for sugar use in 2020–21 and 2021–22 were all the same.
The ending stocks-to-use ratio was predicted to be 12.25%, or around the same as the initial ratio in previous years, with ending stocks of 1,502,000 tons.The USDA predicted that Mexico’s real weight sugar production in 2020–21 would be 5,825,000 tonnes, a 75,000-ton decrease from April. Forecasts for exports and domestic usage were revised downward by 67,000 and upward by 7,000 tonnes, respectively, to 1,499,000 and 4,378,000 tonnes, respectively. In 2020–21, ending stocks were predicted to be 910,000 tonnes, a decrease of 16,000 tonnes from April.
Mexico was expected to produce 5,809,000 tonnes of sugar in 2021–2022, import 85,000 tonnes, export 1,524,000 tonnes, and use 4,370,000 tonnes domestically. 910,000 tonnes of ending stockpiles were predicted, which remained the same as this year. The two years’ ending stocks are equivalent to 2.5 months’ worth of anticipated domestic use.