USDA cuts 925 million bushels of wheat carryover for 2021.
WASHINGTON On August 12, the US Department of Agriculture projected that there will be 925 million bushels of wheat carried over on June 1, 2021. This number is 17 million fewer than the July projection and 119 million fewer than the 1,044 million bushels in 2020—an 11% decrease. The 2021 carryover would be the lowest in the previous six years if the prediction comes to pass.
As all-wheat output increased by 14 million bushels to 1,838 million bushels and imports decreased by 10 million bushels to 130 million bushels, the USDA predicted the wheat supply for 2020–21 at 3,011 million bushels, up 4 million bushels from July.
It was predicted that 2,086 million buses would disappear from wheat in 2020–21, up 21 million buses from July and 25 million buses from 2019–20.
Wheat consumption was predicted to be 960 million buses in 2020–21, which is a decrease of 2 million buses from 962 million buses in 2019–20 and 4 million buses from the July view. According to the USDA, “food consumed away from home is expected to remain lower than last year due to the impact of COVID-19.” This is why the food use prediction from July was reduced.
The other domestic use estimates for 2020–21 remained the same, at 90 million buses for feed and residual and 61 million buses for seed.
975 million bus worth of US wheat exports were anticipated in 2020–21, up 25 million from the July with an upward 10 million bus forecast for 2019–20. The USDA cited decreased output in a number of significant rivals, chief among them the European Union.
The supply and demand estimates by wheat class for 2020–21 were modified in a number of ways by the USDA.
On June 1, 2021, 390 million buses were predicted to be carried over from hard red winter wheat, which is a decrease of 33 million buses from July and a 25% decrease from 521 million buses in 2020. 15 million buses were produced less, for a total of 695 million. Domestic utilisation decreased by 2 million buses to 426 million in 2020–21. Exports of hard red winter wheat were expected to reach 405 million bushels, up 20 million from the estimate made in July and 29 million from 376 million in 2019–20.
The hard red spring wheat carryover was predicted by the USDA at 293 million, up 13 million from 280 million in 2020 and up 23 million from the July prediction. The production of hard red spring wheat increased by 28 million bushels in July to 530 million, while the anticipated imports decreased by 10 million bushels to 60 million. 307 million buses were expected to be used domestically in 2020–21, a 5 million decrease from July. Exports of hard red spring wheat were predicted to be 270 million bus, unchanged.
Projected at 103 million bus, the soft red winter wheat carryover for 2021 was little changed from the July estimate and down just 2 million bus from 2020. While domestic consumption decreased by the same amount to 199 million buses, production fell by 3 million buses from July to 277 million buses.
million-dollar bus. Exports of soft red winter wheat were predicted to reach 90 million bus in 2020–21, a 1% increase.
Due to a one million bus reduction in the output estimate to 274 million bus, the USDA reduced its white wheat carryover forecast for 2021 from July to 104 million bus.
On June 1, 2021, the USDA predicted that there will be 36 million durum cases, which is 4 million fewer than the July estimate and 7 million fewer than the 43 million cases in 2020. From July, the durum production estimate was increased by 6 million buses to 62 million buses. Domestic utilisation was predicted to reach 89 million buses in 2020–21, up 24 million buses from 2019–20 and 6 million buses from July. In 2021–2022, durum exports were predicted to reach Thirty million buses, up five million from the July forecast but down twelve million from 2019–20.