USDA 2020 corn, wheat, and soybean acreage falls short of trade estimates
Washington, DC In its annual Acreage report released on June 30, the US Department of Agriculture projected that 92,006,000 acres of maize would be planted in 2020; this is an increase of 2.6% from 2019 but a decrease of 5% from the March Prospective Plantings outlook. A estimate of 84,023,000 acres would be harvested, an increase of 3.3% over the previous year.
It was predicted that the 83,825,000 acres of soybeans planted will be harvested on 83,020,000 acres, an increase of 11% from the previous year and 0.4% from the plans in March.
At 44,250,000 acres, the total amount of wheat expected to be harvested in 2020 is the lowest since USDA records date back to 1919. This figure is down 0.9% from March and 2% from 2019. In June’s USDA Crop Production report, the planted area was 44,655,000 acres.
The projected area planted to winter wheat was 30,550,000 acres, which represents a 2% decrease from 2019 and a 0.7% decrease from the previous estimate. This is the second lowest amount on record, with hard red winter at 21.5 million, soft red winter at 5.63 million, and white winter at 3.42 million. The area planted to durum wheat was 1,500,000 acres, which represents a 12% increase from the previous year. The area planted to spring wheat other than durum was 12,200,000 acres, which represents a 3.6% decrease from 2019 and a 3.1% decrease from March (hard red spring at 11.5 million). A winterized harvest area with durum at 1,444,000 acres, up 23%, and spring wheat other than durum at 11,795,000 acres, up 1.2%, the estimate for wheat was 23,439,000 acres, the lowest on record and down 3.7% from 2019.
With the exception of durum, all of the USDA’s estimated planted acreage were below the trade’s average expectations.
Following the reports’ 11:00 a.m. Central Time release, CME Group maize and soybean futures saw a significant increase in trading. Wheat futures in Kansas City, Chicago, and Minneapolis all surged higher following the reporting; Minneapolis spring wheat futures saw the biggest increases.
In its Grain Stocks report, the USDA projected that as of June 1, 2020, old-crop total wheat stocks, including 2020 carryover, were 1,044 million bus. This represents a 3.3% decrease from June 1, 2019, which had 232 million bus on 812 million bus off farms, down 7%, and farms, up 12%. 372 million bus of wheat disappeared between March and May, which is 28% less than the same period the previous year.
Durum equities were down 22% from a year ago, trading at 42.8 million bus. 8.55 million buses disappeared between March and May of last year, a 56% decrease from the previous year.
As of June 1, maize stocks across all positions were expected to be 5,224 million bushels, up 0.4% from the previous year; this includes 2,199 million bushels off farms, down 2.4%, and 3,025 million bushels on farms, up 2.6%. 2.73 billion buses of maize were reported to have vanished between March and May, a 20% decrease from the same period last year.
As of June 1, soybean stocks were expected to be 1,386 million bus, a 22% decrease from the previous year whereas off-farm stocks have decreased by 28% to 753 million bus, while on-farm stocks have decreased by 13% to 633 million bus. Compared to the same period in 2019, the reported 869 million bus disappearance of soybeans between March and May decreased by 8%.
While maize estimations were above trade expectations, the majority of the market impact from the lower-than-expected corn plantings estimate more than offset the USDA’s forecasts for wheat and soybean stockpiles, which were below average.