Drought might cause flour prices to rise by 2024.
Just over a month before the US wheat marketing year of 2023–24 kicks off, crop observers and stakeholders throughout the wheat and flour supply chains are focused on moisture, or rather, the extreme lack of it.
Hard red winter and hard red spring, two of the three major wheat classes farmed in the United States, are confronted with moisture issues that could restrict yields and production in 2023, constricting supplies and raising the possibility of above-average flour costs through 2024.
The winter wheat crop in the US central and southern Plains was primarily sown last fall during the drought. The US Department of Agriculture released its last national seeding report the week of November 14, 2022, with nearly the entire Plains—from the Canadian border to the southern tip of Texas—in drought conditions. 96% of winter wheat was planted, according to the Department, slightly more than the 93% average rate for the same day in 2017–21. Seventy-five percent of it was growing in a drought.
Other from a few normal nightly plunges into extremely low temperatures in places not covered by snow, the winter hibernation was moderate and largely uneventful. However, problems with water only became worse, wheat emerged from winter hibernation on additional acreage under drought, and crop conditions generally deteriorated, leading some growers in southwestern Kansas and the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma to think twice about abandoning their crop.
According to Justin Gilpin, CEO of Kansas Wheat, “the crop conditions we’re in have put a lot of attention on the potential of abandonment — acres that will not be harvested.” “Farmers are left to decide whether or not to take insurance on those fields, zero it out, or not take it to harvest because crop insurance adjusters are overloaded with calls.”
Adjusters were essentially doing the same tasks that scouts on the annual hard winter wheat tour, which takes place from May 15–18: measuring and counting, evaluating stands, and estimating production.
According to Mr. Gilpin, “that estimate is based on what it looks like right now, and those numbers are coming back anywhere from zero to four.” “There will be production shortages if the final harvested acreage is drastically lowered due to abandonment. Farmers have said that “even good wheat is bad,” citing low tiller counts, poor development, and poor crown quality where the plant is rooted down as symptoms of drought-stressed plants.
In the meantime, the Central states of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, which grow soft wheat, are largely responsible for the USDA’s improving assessment of winter wheat in drought in early 2023, which improved week by week. Although Eastern Michigan’s drought persisted longer, by April 11 almost all significant soft
A few weeks after emerging from dormancy, Millers from Michigan to Kentucky informed Food Business News market editors that stands and crops were doing well, since some producers had fertilized their fields. Furthermore, the USDA reported that conditions for winter wheat were improving. As of April 16, good-to-excellent ratings for winter wheat were assigned to 72% of Missouri (73% a week earlier), 77% of Illinois (64%), 77% of Indiana (68%), 63% of Ohio (62%), and 69% of Michigan (59%).
Further west, 95% of the winter wheat area in Kansas, 71% in Texas, 88% in Colorado, 100% in Nebraska, 25% in South Dakota, and 26% in Montana were under a drought, according to the April 11 Drought Monitor map, which was dominated by burgundy, the color denoting the most severe classification of exceptional drought.
Condition ratings confirmed this, with the exception of a few minor blips in Montana and Kansas, where the latter saw beneficial April rains that benefited its central cropping districts. 14% of Kansas (13% a week earlier), 13% in Oklahoma (20%), 16% in Texas (17%), 23% in Colorado (25%), 21% in Nebraska (23%), 24% in South Dakota (29%) and 31% in Montana (30%) had good-to-excellent ratings as of April 16.
You may also like:
Food security in emerging nations: issues and remedies
Are drinks the secret to increasing cannabis use among consumers?
Managing the lack of labour for mushroom picking
Mr. Gilpin stated, “Wheat surrounding those cities looks like it still has potential, especially Salina, McPherson, Hutchinson, and Wichita.”
By the second week of April, seeding had officially started up north. How long that window will open is still unknown, as farmers in a large swath of North Dakota watch the snow melt after a delayed shift to warmer spring temperatures, hope it melts gradually enough to prevent flooding, and wait for the fields to dry enough to use heavy machinery.
“The fact that hard red winter wheat is going to have a short production year will put some pressure on spring wheat production and draw more attention to spring wheat plantings, conditions, and ultimate harvest this year for total US balance sheets,” Mr. Gilpin said. “There is concern out there about spring wheat planting lagging, but it’s still awful early to see how that acreage situation will play out.”